Mars, From Pole To Pole (ESA’s Mars Express Mission)

Ah yes, an Apollo CSM can hold five people

Mae Jemison Trains for Her Space Shuttle Flight : Mae Jemison, the first black woman in space, participated in crew egress training for Space Shuttle Endeavour’s STS-47 mission during the Terminal Countdown Demonstration Test. (via NASA)

Full Thrust "Goldilocks"

My thoughts on the upcoming IFT-3 flight of Starship-Super Heavy

As of writing (12th of February), IFT-3 is currently scheduled to occur later this month, but it could still easily get delayed.

My prediction is that IFT-3 will probably achieve orbit and will probably conduct an internal propellant-transfer, but that the upper stage (SN28) will probably suffer a failure of some kind during reëntry, either being destroyed or deviating far from its targetted splashdown-zone.

It's safe to say that successful reëntry is unlikely on IFT-3. Here's why:

The Starship upper stage will be the largest reëntry-vehicle ever built.

This reëntry profile (a belly-first reëntry with four fins used for stability) is unique and has never been done before. Starship's belly-first orientation is inherently ærodynamically unstable, which is why it needs constant corrections from the four fins. It could get trapped in a nose-first or tail-first orientation, both of which might be more stable. Else, a loss of control would just result in endless tumbling.

We've already seen heatshield-tiles falling off during IFT-1 and IFT-2. In fact, more fell off the latter than the former due to higher ærodynamic pressures and engine vibrations.

A failure during reëntry would be consistent with the general pattern of testflight-failures established so far. Essentially, each flight is a failure, but less of a failure than the previous one.

Honestly, I don't know what could happen to the first stage booster (B10). SpaceX knows how to do boostback-burns and propulsive landings. It's seemingly just a matter of preventing the vehicle from blowing itself up. Engine reliability will probably determine the booster's success.

It'll be interesting to watch nonetheless.

The fate of the Artemis Programme now depends on the success of these test flights and in SpaceX rapidly developing and utilising this reüsable launch-system. Development has been ongoing for over five years now, and the vehicle has yet to reach orbit. The landing of astronauts on the Moon is scheduled for September 2026. How likely is it that SpaceX will have humans on the Moon in just two and a half years from now?

Well actually it wasn't just about funding. Kathy Lueders basically made the decision to contract SpaceX by herself in 2021. The fact that there was a governmental leadership-change ongoing at the time might have enabled her to sneak this through: https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/option-a-source-selection-statement-final.pdf

In 2023, she quit NASA and went to work for SpaceX as a general manager of the Starship Programme in Texas.

Bare in mind that SpaceX had not yet provided a capsule mockup and their lander design was inherently less safe and more ambitious than the alternatives. It also depends upon a highly experimental super heavy-lift launch-system using several wholly new technologies and flight profiles.

But now that it's crucial for NASA's Artemis Programme, NASA is basically required to be involved in Starship development and to continue providing funds. Musk's companies are already quite well known for tricking the government and the customer out of their money.

It's genuinely possible that Starship HLS might not be ready before Blue Moon MK 2 is.

A solar cycle: a montage of 10 years worth of x-ray images taken by the ようこう (Yōkō 'sunbeam') sun-observation satellite.

The Sun undergoes a cycle of magnetic activity with a period of about 11 years. At solar maximum, solar observatories see more sunspots on the Sun's surface. Solar flares and coronal mass ejections are bigger and more frequent, triggering auroræ in Earth's skies, interfering with some types of radio communication, and irradiating deep space hardware. The Sun's magnetic field also undergoes a polarity inversion during solar maximum, when the north and south magnetic poles on the Sun swap (this happens again 11 years later in the next maximum). By contrast, the solar minimum has very few or no sunspots and the Sun is generally calm; a good time for deep space missions.

The last solar maximum was in February 2014. The last minimum was December 2019, marking the transition from cycle 24 to 25 (records began in 1755). The next maximum is predicted for the second half of 2025.

View of Earth from NASA’s Parker Solar Probe

Remembering Col. Frank Frederick Borman II (March 14, 1928 – November 7, 2023), who passed away earlier this week at the incredible age of 95.

What an incredible life he had. Frank was the commander of Gemini VII and Apollo 8 and one of the first humans to fly around the moon. Until his death, he was the oldest living American astronaut—now his best friend Jim Lovell, who is 11 days younger, holds the distinction.

Frank’s beloved wife Susan, to whom he was married for over 70 years, passed away in 2021 and they are survived by their two sons.

Frank will be remembered as one of NASA’s best and brightest. He was known to be direct and to-the-point with a sharp sense of humor to match.

Every December 24th, I listen to Apollo 8’s Christmas Eve broadcast from lunar orbit in 1968, which included the crew’s recitation from Genesis and Frank’s message to the world: “Good night, good luck, a Merry Christmas —and God bless all of you, all of you on the good Earth.” I’ll do so again this year with a little sadness and a lot of gratitude to Frank and his extraordinary life.

"When you're finally up at the moon looking back on earth, all those differences and nationalistic traits are pretty well going to blend, and you're going to get a concept that maybe this really is one world and why the hell can't we learn to live together like decent people." Frank Borman (1928-2023)