My Thoughts On The Upcoming IFT-3 Flight Of Starship-Super Heavy
My thoughts on the upcoming IFT-3 flight of Starship-Super Heavy
As of writing (12th of February), IFT-3 is currently scheduled to occur later this month, but it could still easily get delayed.
My prediction is that IFT-3 will probably achieve orbit and will probably conduct an internal propellant-transfer, but that the upper stage (SN28) will probably suffer a failure of some kind during reëntry, either being destroyed or deviating far from its targetted splashdown-zone.
It's safe to say that successful reëntry is unlikely on IFT-3. Here's why:
The Starship upper stage will be the largest reëntry-vehicle ever built.
This reëntry profile (a belly-first reëntry with four fins used for stability) is unique and has never been done before. Starship's belly-first orientation is inherently ærodynamically unstable, which is why it needs constant corrections from the four fins. It could get trapped in a nose-first or tail-first orientation, both of which might be more stable. Else, a loss of control would just result in endless tumbling.
We've already seen heatshield-tiles falling off during IFT-1 and IFT-2. In fact, more fell off the latter than the former due to higher ærodynamic pressures and engine vibrations.
A failure during reëntry would be consistent with the general pattern of testflight-failures established so far. Essentially, each flight is a failure, but less of a failure than the previous one.
Honestly, I don't know what could happen to the first stage booster (B10). SpaceX knows how to do boostback-burns and propulsive landings. It's seemingly just a matter of preventing the vehicle from blowing itself up. Engine reliability will probably determine the booster's success.
It'll be interesting to watch nonetheless.
The fate of the Artemis Programme now depends on the success of these test flights and in SpaceX rapidly developing and utilising this reüsable launch-system. Development has been ongoing for over five years now, and the vehicle has yet to reach orbit. The landing of astronauts on the Moon is scheduled for September 2026. How likely is it that SpaceX will have humans on the Moon in just two and a half years from now?
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Honestly, funding Starship HLS was probably one of NASA's worst recent decisions. At least Blue Moon is also in development, too, or else there'd be good reason to worry about the entire Artemis Programme being cancelled.
It's genuinely possible that Starship HLS might not be ready before Blue Moon MK 2 is.
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