It’s The 21st Day Of The 21st Year Of The 21st Century.

Obligatory Oscar Predictions (now with gratuitous gifs!)

I’ll be belatedly posting my reviews of various movies including a top ten list over the next few weeks, but if I’m going to turn this into a consistent (mostly) movie review blog, I may as well start with the obvious.

BEST PICTURE

There are about a half-dozen that seem to be locks at this point -- Three Billboards, The Shape of Water, Dunkirk, The Post, Lady Bird, and Get Out. (if one is missing tomorrow morning, expect it to be the last, but I doubt it) 

First off, let’s pour one out for 2017, a year so bizarre and awesome that a fantasy about a mute woman having an affair with a fish-monster and a horror-comedy are front-runners. That’s like if the 1987 Best Picture nominees had been The Last Emperor, Hope and Glory, Broadcast News, Evil Dead II, and The Witches of Eastwick.

The remaining 3 or 4 slots are where it gets trickier.

Now, the Academy obviously isn’t cool enough to go for Wonder Woman, Logan, Guardians of the Galaxy 2, and The Last Jedi. That said, if they do go for one of the critically beloved blockbusters, I’d bank on the first one, with Logan being an extremely dark horse. 

The remaining probable options are: Call Me By Your Name, I Tonya, The Darkest Hour, The Big Sick, Mudbound and Molly’s Game. All should get screenplay nominations and at least one acting nod; the question is just which of them are going to carry over to the big prize. 

The Big Sick mostly has the problem that there’s already three comedy slots taken between Three Billboards, Lady Bird, and Get  Out; they don’t typically go for one comedy, let alone a whole slate. Still, it was widely embraced enough that it certainly will have some momentum.

Call Me By Your Name is a good bet simply on the cynical account of being the serious gay romance of the year. I suspect its support will be better than for The Danish Girl but not as strong as Moonlight simply on account of it being much better than the former but not as great as the latter; that said, it’s lovingly crafted enough to push over the line, I suspect.

I, Tonya is probably a lock for Actress, and seems like the sort of film to get an extra boost on the power of that incredible lead performance; it helps that it’s a really good film that scores very strongly on feminist scales in a year where that’s going to be the groundswell in the Academy.

The Darkest Hour is trickier to guess; similarly, it’s a film built around one astounding performance, but isn’t nearly as strong as I, Tonya outside of Oldman Oldmaning the hell out of his best role in years.

Molly’s Game falls in the same category; Chastain is sensational, and I’m surprised Idris Elba doesn’t have more buzz and Costner doesn’t have any, but the movie itself is good, not great. Aaron Sorkin truly has a way with words, but as director, he’s a little too in love with his words, and too often doesn’t trust his visual telling of the story to carry it when he can dilute the impact with a 500 word speech explaining the images.

Finally, Mudbound has the severe disadvantage of Netflix’s hostility toward theaters and the traditional film business, which I suspect keeps them from really effectively campaigning. Although it’ll probably get noticed somewhere, the big prize will likely elude it.

FINAL CHOICE FOR BEST PICTURE: 

(in decreasing order of likeliness)

Three Billboards

The Shape of Water

Dunkirk

The Post

Lady Bird

Get Out

Call Me By Your Name

I, Tonya

The Big Sick

Wonder Woman

BEST DIRECTOR

The picture pool largely shows who’s in line, with the bottom three films unlikely to show up here. McDonough and Del Toro are locks, and Greta Gerwig probably is, as well. Christopher Nolan seems like he should be a lock, but you would have thought so for The Dark Knight and Inception, too; has the director’s branch has gotten over whatever their Nolan-hate? Conversely, Spielberg would normally seem to be a lock, but he has so many nominations over the years that he might seem too obvious a choice; would they be voting because he did such a great job, or just because he’s frickin’ Spielberg? (in this case, definitely the former; his work in The Post is masterful) Then there’s the question of whether Jordan Peele has even more momentum than he seems to have, and if Luca Guadagnino manages a spoiler. Peele and Nolan getting DGA nods suggests they have the strongest support among the directors; I’ll chose them, but won’t be shocked to see wither Spielberg or Gaudagnino on there. (call Patty Jenkins the one-in-a-million longshot)

Martin McDonough - Three Billboards

Guillermo Del Toro - The Shape of Water

Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird

Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk

Jordan Peele - Get Out

BEST ACTOR

Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

Timothy Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name

Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

Tom Hanks, The Post

POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Denzel - Roman J Israel Esq. (though nobody seemed to like anything else about the movie); James Franco - The Disaster Artist (reports of his long-known douchey, misogynist behavior may keep him down, but then again, Casey Affleck); Hugh Jackman - either The Greatest Shomwan or Logan (having both in the mix probably kills his chances, and with The Greatest Showman embraced by audiences but loathed by critics, and Logan being a superhero movie released way back in Spring, it’s a hell of a longshot either way. I just really want him to get it for Logan.)

BEST ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

Frances McDormand, Three Billboards

Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Meryl Streep, The Post

SPOILERS: Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (honestly a tossup between her and Streep); Jude Dench, Victoria and Abdul (minor, barely seen film, but it’s Dench); Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World; Diane Kruger, In the Fade

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World

Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name

Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards

SPOILERS: Richard Jenkins or, less likely, Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water; Michael Stuhlberg, Call Me By Your Name; Idris Elba, Molly’s Game; Patrick Stewart, Logan (I will mention Logan every chance I get in an effort to will nominations into existence) 

(and yes, that gif is from Iron Man 2)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Allison Janey, I, Tonya

Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

SPOILERS: Hong Chau, Downsizing (but everyone seems to have hated the movie otherwise); Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread; Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (if there’s an out of nowhere nod); Kristin Scott Thomas, The Darkest Hour; Michelle Pfieffer, mother!; Dafne Keene, Logan (see above)

OTHER VARIOUS NOTES

Murder on the Orient Express was one of my favorite films this year, but it seems to have been largely forgotten by the various awards communities. Still, it should at least get nominations for Costume Design and Production Design, and just possibly Cinematography. Tragically, there is no category for “Best Mustache”, a category this film would not only win but fill all the nominations.

The Shape of Water, apparently, is not even being considered for best makeup for reasons that I can’t possibly fathom. It will be one of the films that really cleans up in the tech categories, though.

Star Wars, Wonder Woman, Beauty and the Beast, and Dunkirk will dominate the technical awards. War For the Planet of the Apes, the best in the series since the original in ‘68 and one of the highlights of the year, will be ghettoed into just Visual Effects.

This is my headcanon now.

We know that Varys tried to convince Aerys to keep the gates closed the Lannister army and that Pycelle encouraged Aerys to open them wide. That indicates that they were both present in KL during the final days of the Rebellion. My question is this, do you think once the doors were open and the Lions started sacking the city, that both the master of Whispers and Grand Maester simply ‘vanished’ until the dust had settled?

I believe Pycelle probably went to his apartments, barricaded the door, and waited until Lannister troops came to escort him safely to Tywin's forces. The Grand Maester, as a position, benefits from "maester neutrality," so that does assist him in not being seen as an Aerys loyalist, even if Northern troops happened to get to him first.

Varys though, almost certainly disappeared into the labyrinth of secret passages honeycombing the Red Keep to ensure the safety of his person. He perceived that he would have probably been killed in the sack. and so he'd look for a place no one knew until he could arrange to surrender himself to Robert. Robert's legendary status as those who pardoned his former foes probably worked in Varys's favor there.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

Man, Clara is a terrible liar.

My review of Time Heist.

Paizo, AI Art, and Copyright

So you may have seen that Paizo, the (unionized) tabletop roleplaying company behind Pathfinder, has decided to ban AI art and writing from both its own products and its community-created marketplaces. As you might expect, this has caused a certain amount of righteous indignation among pro-AI tech bro types. 

I think one thing that the tech bros who are screaming about Luddites and the inevitability of market forces and blah blah are completely ignoring is that we’re not talking about personal use of AI art and text - we’re talking about commercial uses of AI art and text. That means what really matters here is contracts and copyrights.

In case you haven’t heard, it is very well-settled law that art produced by non-humans cannot be copyrighted. More specifically, the U.S Copyright Office has repeatedly ruled that AI-generated pictures and comic book art cannot be copyrighted.

No matter how much you say that you “created” something by typing into a search bar and hit a button over and over again, if you don’t own the copyright to a piece of art, you can’t sell it because you don’t actually own it. Which means that Paizo isn’t going to buy it, because they can’t purchase the copyright to it as part of the contract, which means they can’t sell any products that use it.

palpatine straight up told anakin he was a sith lord and anakin was like well. this is a lot to process so im going to go fetch my boss and we’ll come back in about half an hour and murder you so don’t go anywhere and palpatine didn’t you have to admire the man

TFW you learn your titty art was found on the walls of a murder scene. Buckle up for this ride!!

So, 5 years ago in Grand Rapids, MI, a body from the neck down was found dumped in a park after a man went to meet someone from Craigslist. His pregnant girlfriend was missing. This is why we don’t meet people off CL, folks.

The police managed to figure out who did it within a few days, but the guy fled, there was a high speed chase the wrong way down the highway, crashed his car, and shot himself in the face before they could get him in custody. Pregnant girlfriend dead in the trunk.

There were a lot of unanswered questions. Like where was the head? His skull was found last week, miles away from where the body had been found, so the story has been back in the news recently, and a friend noticed something… interesting in one of the crime scene photos.

You see, years ago, back when I was with Super Happy Funtime Burlesque, we had an art day where we covered our tits in paint and made prints which we sold at shows. I made this clown titty print as a joke and titled it “Let’s Play Forever.“ We joked at the time of creation that it was a really creepy title but haha whatever. I really didn’t anticipate anyone would actually buy it. I was just painting weird clowns on my titties for fun. Like ya do. #justgirlythings

But apparently this murderer was 1: a big fan of our show and 2: looked at this and thought "Yes THIS is what I need for the kill room. It’s really gonna tie the place together.” I like the floggers on either side of it, really gives it that feeling of if a bot created Stephen King porn.

But here’s the kicker: the murder victim was… 

MY EX ROOMMATE. 

Through sheer coincidence one of the last things SOMEONE I KNEW saw was A PICTURE OF MY CLOWN TITTIES.

What is it like to be a normal person because shit like this happens to me all the time and I just wonder sometimes how most people live their lives free of this kinda chicanery.

I’m just proud to have some of my art hanging in the most prestigious museum of all: a police evidence locker.

Everything about this is amazing.

In your mind, how is Wayne Industries structured?

wow this took like six months and ended up a lot longer than i intended and i’m not even sure if i answered the question you were asking

i am ignoring literally everything from canon because canon says that every single company owned by wayne enterprises is called Wayne Insert-Industry-Name-Here and that’s dumb as all hell and i hate it. also i made the company founding contemporary with famous olde rich people like the rockefellers and whatnot because Old Money. i’ll put dates on some of these but on some of them (like when we’re getting real granular) i just cannot be fucked to bother. let’s also agree that there are a bunch of things that are technically subsidiaries but which are actually the exact same goddamn thing just slightly altered because it’s in a different state or something, which i don’t need to list.

i am assuming for these purposes that wayne enterprises is a privately held conglomerate with control having been ceded to a board of directors during thomas wayne’s tenure as ceo-in-name-mostly as well as while the company was in a trust; the board was subsequently dissolved once bruce was old enough to make that decision. privately held companies aren’t obligated to disclose financials or maintain a board, which is great if you’re planning to be batman and also make a lot of theoretically financially unwise decisions like setting a minimum wage of $15 throughout the organization and implementing a cash profit sharing plan.

anti-trust and monopoly laws aren’t an issue because they’re way too diversified and none of their business units dominate their chosen industry. there are probably conspiracy theories that the reason for the immense diversity of interests is actually to keep different markets competitive and protect other businesses from anti-trust suits, which would be pretty compelling if every wayne from the start weren’t fueled by spite and pettiness.

anyone who wants to has blanket permission to use this for whatever because canon is for suckers but so is figuring out corporate structures yourself

tumblr is probably going to completely fuck the formatting so you might want to read this on my other blog instead

Keep reading

Now you see, I’ve watched enough cartoons to know that this square of the carpet is on a separate animation cell from the background & therefore something funky will happen if I step on it. You won’t catch me making a rookie mistake like that no sir!

Could you maybe reblog this post if you think respecting trans peoples' names and identities is a basic right and not a political opinion?

No pressure. Just seeking some validation of my sentiment. Due to some. people